NSIC

What makes the 21st century security environment different than that of the 20th century?

To answer this question, NSIC researchers identified and documented key propositions that distinguish between the principal sources of conflict in these two centuries. These propositions explain important dimensions of 21st century security challenges, including: 1) the major actors—state and non-state—that dominate the current environment; 2) the visions and cultures that shape their goals and policies; and 3) the diverse means they employ to achieve their objectives.

While some of the 20th century principles remain valid for understanding today’s security context, others do not. Most importantly, today the majority of conflicts pit coalitions of nonstate armed groups and other nonstate actors against democratic states and groups.

None of these developments are temporary or short-lived. Rather, evidence points to their increasing significance in the first quarter of the 21st century. Specifically, local, regional, and transnational political movements, powerful armed groups, and super-empowered individuals will be potent forces able to affect security in major and strategic ways. To do so, they are erecting new types of coalitions, partnerships, and networks with each other.

For each proposition, NSIC’s research team collected and analyzed primary and secondary source material. Each proposition was reviewed by recent senior military and civilian security practitioners from democracies around the world. They brought to bear their vast experience managing challenges posed by weak and failing states, as well as by powerful armed groups.

NSIC has now prepared research essays on many of these propositions to enhance the ways in which the US and other democracies think about and prepare for the security of their citizens.

The Sources of Instability in the 21st Century: An Overview
By Richard Shultz, Roy Godson, Querine Hanlon, and Samantha Ravich

State Actors in the 21st Century Security Environment
By Querine Hanlon

Playing the Long Game: Visions and Strategic Cultures of Competent Authoritarian States
By Samantha Ravich

The 21st Century Security Environment: Challenges Posed by a Multiplicity of Armed Groups
By Richard Shultz

Weak States and Their Opportunistic Means
By Querine Hanlon